George splashes the cash, but is that an elephant I spy in yonder room?

Just a quick take on the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement. How can I do that when he has just begun speaking in the House of Commons you ask? Well, this statement has been so well trailed in the press that we know exactly what Georgie is going to say with the exception of how big the deficit actually is!

We know, for example, that the Chancellor is going to unveil an infrastructure investment plan worth at least £25bn, the lion’s share of which will come from pension funds. We also know that he has plans to unlock £40bn of bank lending for small businesses which the government will underwrite and from somewhere (loose change down the back of the Treasury sofa presumably) we’ve also found a whopping £400m fund to enable housebuilders to build up to 16,000 new homes. Oh, and not only is he going to splash the cash but he is also going to take less into the Treasury coffers by deferring a 3p rise in fuel duty which was due to be introduced in January.

All good news and with money so cheap at the moment, due to historic low interest rates, now is the time that business should be investing, if only companies could be sure that demand will hold up and also gain access to finance.

Which brings me to the crux of the problem. The elephant in the room this afternoon will be the Euro. Friday’s analyst note from Nomura spoke of ‘probable’ rather than ‘possible’ collapse, the question is when?

The nightmare for George is that all these good intentions are blown away and calculations are declared null and void by a monumental Eurozone default which requires a further bailout of the banks. In a week or a month’s time this Autumn Statement could have all the relevance of a little piece of paper waved around by a former Lord Mayor of Birmingham called Neville Chamberlain in 1939!

Another bashing for the Greeks - in the kitchen

The WPR team enjoyed an insightful update on the Eurozone crisis this week from our Head of B2B PR, Tom Leatherbarrow. After picking myself up from the misery of impending doom, I wondered whether the latest news events were having any affect on food and drink markets. And it threw up some fascinating results.

As you might expect (and like most markets), it seems UK food exports to Greece are on the decline – down 14% YOY in September. But interestingly, the troubles in Greece also seem to be influencing eating habits on our own shores too; sales of chilled Greek ready meals in the UK fell 7% in the year to September according to Kantar Worldpanel.

It may not all be George Papandreou’s fault but the lethargy for lamb koftas and moussaka is in contrary to healthy increases enjoyed by Italian, French and Spanish chilled ready meals. And you fear there is worse to come for the Greeks.

British Gas transparent tariffs must be more than a marketing tactic

Today’s announcement by British Gas that it is to introduce simple and transparent pricing structures, involving one fixed and one variable rate, whilst welcome, will be viewed with cynicism by many consumers, media commentators and the company’s competitors.

Let’s make no mistake about it, this has been done under duress. The energy sector is under pressure. The Big Chiefs have already been called into 10 Downing Street for a dressing down by the PM (although not much constructive came out of it), OFGEM is investigating the wholesale markets and the media is getting increasingly cynical about a lack of competition and seemingly orchestrated movements in pricing. Today, on the BBC, British Gas’ Chief Executive admitted that the sector had lost the trust of consumers, with more than 500 different tariffs available.

But are BG’s motives entirely altruistic? Perhaps, but the energy market in the UK is mature and BG has been losing market share. Many customers will unquestionably be attracted to the transparent British Gas model and I have no doubt that the company will gain customers (however many thousands will still be out there on the old tariffs).

The true measure will surely be whether customers actually save any money. Many years ago I was told by one energy employee that most of the top jobs in the British energy sector were held by ex-British Gas employees who liked nothing more than to get one over on their old mates.

If today’s announcement ultimately turns out to be a tactical grab for market share, dressed up as corporate altruism, with no real customer benefit, then trust in the whole sector, not just British Gas will erode even further.

One to watch!

Leveson is the tabloids’ worst nightmare come true!

Just a quick take on the Leveson Inquiry which started slowly but is now building up a real head of steam.

For years the British tabloid press went about its business secure in the knowledge that it would always have the last word. Got caught printing a false story? “Never mind, we’ll print a retraction on page 42 and if the ‘victim’ tries to take it any further we’ll set the attack dogs on him.”

It was enough to ward off even the bravest of the brave. But now, as a result of Leveson, the last word goes to the victims and it is compelling viewing.

For the tabloids the impact of their modus operandi on targets is being laid bare for all to see and hear. The count so far is four alleged suicides, a burglary, a stay in a mental health institution, job losses galore, heartache and cruelty.

Much has been written about the Dowler family’s testimony yesterday, but Hugh Grant’s was equal to it. Responding to charges that he traded on his good name to get publicity he told the inquiry: “I don’t have a good name. I’m the man who was arrested with a prostitute.”

The Daily Mail responded today with characteristic venom to allegations of phone hacking by Grant, but it’s anger only reinforces the victim’s narrative of bullying, arrogant and heartless behaviour.

These are dangerous times for the Red Tops. The tables have been turned and the narrative of the story is beginning to run away from them. Crucially, social media and online news sites are giving the British public unfiltered updates in real time.

By the time the Daily Mail is read next morning we’ve been chewing over and discussing what we’ve seen and heard for the best part of a day.

The truth is that the tabloids have lost control of the situation and their traditional defence that these are "victimless crimes" has never sounded so hollow!

Internet statto nerds get journalism’s old guard in their sights

It’s not easy when those you admire prove to have feet of clay. Barely ten days after lauding him on this very blog as being a ‘must read’ in the Independent, James Lawton crystallised the problem that many old guard journalists populating our national newspapers are facing.

Writing in Saturday’s Indy, Lawton used selective statistics to demonstrate how Kenny Dalglish’s reign as Liverpool manager is actually little better than that of his predecessor Roy Hodgson. In particular Hodgson’s points per game percentage of 1.25 compared to Dalglish’s 1.79.

Unfortunately for James, the internet is an unforgiving place. Nowadays, there is an army statto nerd football supporters out there who are able to tell you the exact pass completion percentage of an individual player in the final third of the pitch during consecutive February’s and illustrate it in the form of a venn diagram. More importantly, in the digital age, comment boxes below articles give this army of nerds an opportunity to voice their opinion.

And so it came to pass. Within a few hours of the piece being posted Lawton was skewered on his own stats by football supporters of multiple allegiances, not just Red. Here are a few of the most choice (and repeatable) comments:

“You make a point of Dalglish's average points haul being 1.79 over 29 games, when your beloved "English Arry" at Spurs is worse at 1.76 and Wenger's is 1.66”

“The difference between 1.25 points per game and 1.8 is relegation and Champions League form”

“How can you use numbers which undermine your point to make a point?”

I suspect Mr Lawton won’t have lost much sleep over the reaction to his article, but he should. It may well have been a crude attempt at generating link bait but credibility is hard won and easily lost. He must realise that the days of being able to slop together a thousand words of ill-thought out comment five minutes before deadline are over. There is an army of statto nerds out there who have done their research even if he hasn’t.

Anyway, Mr Lawton can take what little solace there is from the fact that the Tomkins Times, run by the doyen of statto nerds, Paul Tomkins, has nominated him “Media Muppet of the Month”!

Purple reign: Cadbury purple ruling is a big relief

I read an interesting story today that Cadbury has won the latest ruling on the pantone 2865c shade of purple.

After a long battle it has finally been confirmed that only Cadbury can use “Cadbury purple” on chocolate bars and drinks (although the UK Intellectual Office is still to decide on the ruling for all chocolate products). Hurrah!

Living close to Bournville myself, I’m delighted about a ruling which goes far beyond the colour of Dairy Milk wrappers. Cadbury might have faced many bigger challenges in recent years but this is a fantastic victory for the team in purple as it fights hard to keep hold of its history and traditions against the backdrop of a huge American shadow.

Whatever Nestle say, pantone 2865 IS Cadbury. From packaging and advertising to street furniture and architecture, it’s an instantly recognisable symbol of a proud Birmingham brand.

And for that reason anybody who has walked past the purple lampposts down Bournville Lane, stood on the purple platforms at Bournville train station or even played football against Cadbury Athletic in their distinctive purple kit, will, like me, breathe a sigh of relief.

Government’s Feed-in Tariff cut was a masterpiece of miscommunication

I’ve had a series of very interesting conversations with parties involved at various points in the supply chain for solar PV products over the last few days. Invariably, there is bemusement at the Government’s ham-fisted changes to the Feed-in tariff. As I said to one contact, “You know something has been b#&*%ed up when it creates an alliance between the CBI, the Local Government Association and Friends of the Earth.”

However, it is the manner of the communication and timing which has left me truly dumbfounded. The decision to announce a 50 per cent cut in the tariff, but delay implementation for over a month has created chaos in the marketplace.

It is the equivalent of the Chancellor of the Exchequer announcing that he intends to double cigarette duty in his April Budget but delaying actually starting until May. I think we all know what would happen. There would be a gigantic surge of fag buying with a stockpiling of Benson & Hedges on an unprecedented scale! Of course, that boom would lead to an inevitable bust as soon as the change came in.

Much the same is now happening in the solar PV market. Much better in my view would have been a solution which has been rumoured in another sector, namely a fuel price stabiliser, whereby consumers would be cushioned from the impact of fuel price rises by a corresponding reduction in fuel duty.

It is easy to see how this sort of solution could have been implemented in the solar PV market. Unit cost of solar PV has been falling sharply of late. A stabiliser system would have reduced the Feed-in tariff in line with any reduction in the unit cost of equipment, thereby ensuring that nobody was making a killing, but at the same time not collapsing the entire market.

Instead, the heating industry runs itself into the ground trying to satisfy short-term demand, all the time knowing that the market is going to go into free fall on December 12th.

Madness!